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07/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The finale of a three-game set at Progressive Field will take place this afternoon when the Cleveland Indians host the Oakland Athletics.
Taking the hill for the Indians will be Fausto Carmona, who has won three of his last four outings. The last time Carmona was on the bump, the right-hander led the Indians past Toronto, 5-4.
Carmona threw a little over six innings in the victory, surrendering four runs -- three earned -- on six hits and three walks.
It was the third home win on the year in eight starts at Progressive Field for Carmona, who has a mediocre 3.69 earned run average in front of a home crowd this season.
Earlier this season Carmona held the Athletics to just one run on seven hits in 7 1/3 innings of work. In his career against Oakland, Carmona is 3-3, but has a terrible 5.87 earned run average.
The Athletics will turn to Vin Mazzaro, who notched his third victory on the season in his last outing. In the 4-2 victory over Baltimore, the righty tossed six solid innings, allowing just one run on three hits and six walks.
It was the second road win on the season for Mazzaro, who has a 4.43 earned run average in games on the road.
This will be the second-ever start for the New Jersey native against Cleveland. In his only other start against the Tribe, Mazzaro was punished for five runs on 10 hits in just six innings.
On Saturday, Matt LaPorta bounced a base hit back through the middle to chase home the winning run in the 10th, as Cleveland captured a 5-4 win against Oakland.
Travis Hafner lined a double into the right-center gap with one out in the 10th, stayed put on an intentional walk and was then replaced by pinch- runner Anderson Hernandez, who scored on the hit by LaPorta, who ended with three hits and a pair of RBI.
Jayson Nix added a two-run homer for the Indians, whose season-high, five-game winning streak was broken in the opener of this three-game set Friday.
Cliff Pennington went 3-for-4 with a two-run triple and scored twice for Oakland, which had won six of seven coming in. Craig Breslow (3-2) took the loss.
Tony Sipp (1-2) got Adam Rosales to ground out to end the top of the 10th with a runner on third.
Clay Mortensen worked six innings in place of scheduled starter Dallas Braden, fanning seven with two walks while yielding four runs (three earned) on six hits in his 2010 debut. Braden hit the 15-day disabled list Saturday with tightness in his pitching elbow. He has failed to pick up a win since hurling his perfect game way back on May 9th versus the Rays
<< Red Sox hope to break the brooms out on O's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston will try to complete the three-game sweep over
Baltimore when the Red Sox host the Orioles this afternoon in the series
finale at Fenway Park.
Taking the hill for the Red Sox will be John Lackey, who has won five of
<< Mason ties European Senior Tour wins record
Bad Ragaz, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Englishman Carl Mason posted a two-
under 68, including a hole-in-one, Sunday to win the Bad Ragaz PGA Seniors
Open by two strokes.
The victory was Mason's 23rd on the European Senior Tour, w
<< Ikeda cruises to three-shot win in Japan
Mie, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yuta Ikeda managed just a one-over 73 Sunday,
but it was more than enough to win the Toshin Golf Tournament at Toshin Lake
Wood Golf Club.
Ikeda finished the tournament at 17-under-par 271 for his fifth
<< Harvick prevails in Daytona wreck-fest
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Harvick won his second consecutive
restrictor-plate race by taking Saturday's Coke Zero 400 at Daytona
International Speedway.
Harvick, the current points leader, survived a rash of l
Yanks celebrate Steinbrenner's birthday in finale with Jays >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Today's finale between the Yankees and Blue Jays will be an
extra special matchup, as the Bronx Bombers will be celebrating the 80th
birthday of owner George Steinbrenner.
In a tribute to Steinbrenner the team will display
Hudson, Nolasco square off at Turner Field >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran right-hander Tim Hudson takes the mound with a
series sweep in sight today when the Atlanta Braves host the Florida Marlins
in the finale of a three-game Independence Day weekend series at Turner Field.
The Braves
Mets, Nats close four-game set in DC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hisanori Takahashi may be fighting for his rotation spot
this afternoon when the New York Mets and Washington Nationals close out a
four-game set at Nationals Park.
Takahashi at times has looked brilliant, but has also had
Reds hope Leake gets on track in finale against Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Slumping rookie right-hander Mike Leake aims for a first
win in nearly a month today when the Cincinnati Reds vie for a series win in
the finale of a four-game matchup with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Reds, who
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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