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01/27/2007 - Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys finish up a brief two-game homestand this weekend, as they play host to the Iowa State Cyclones in Big 12 action from the Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater.
The Cowboys moved to 3-2 in league play and 17-3 overall with a 66-61 win over rival Oklahoma on Monday.
The Cyclones are a game behind OSU in the standings at 2-3 and the team brings a three-game losing streak into Stillwater. The team hasn't played since last weekend, when it fell at home to Kansas State, 69-60.
The Cowboys hold a 56-51 advantage in the all-time series. Oklahoma State has won seven of the last eight meetings with ISU and has a 32-13 edge in games played at home in this series.
The Cyclones struggled with their shot, especially in the first half and trailed by 10 points at the break against Kansas State last weekend. The team did a little better in the second half, but could not overcome the deficit, falling by nine in the end. Mike Taylor did his best to lead the way to victory, as he scored 21 points to pace all Cyclones. Jiri Hubalek had a solid game as well, registering a double-double with 17 points and 10 boards. On the season, Iowa State has struggled offensively for the most part, averaging just 67.1 ppg, on a modest .419 shooting. Taylor has been the most consistent performer, averaging 16.7 ppg. However, his .382 shooting from the floor could certainly use some improvement. Wesley Johnson is one of the top freshmen in the league, averaging a near double-double with 12.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Hubalek has been a force up front as well, with 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per outing.
The Cowboys remained perfect at home with a solid win over the Sooners this week. Oklahoma State shot just .419 from the floor in the game, but outscored the visiting Sooners, 27-13 at the free-throw line in the victory. Byron Eaton led the offensive charge with a season-high 17 points. Three others joined him in double figures, with Mario Boggan putting up 13 points, followed by JamesOn Curry and David Monds, at 12 and 11 ppg, respectively. This season, Oklahoma State is averaging a steady 81.8 ppg, on nearly 50 percent shooting (.492) There may not be a better one-two punch in the nation than Boggan and Curry, who combine for nearly 40 points per game. Boggan leads the team in both scoring (21.0 ppg) and rebounding (7.7 rpg), while shooting .575 from the field. Curry is a perfect complement with his perimeter game, pouring in 18.8 ppg, while delivering on 43.3 percent from behind the arc (55-of-127). Terrel Harris provides another option offensively, at 10.8 ppg.
<< Jayhawks host Buffaloes in Big 12 clash
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the Big 12
standings meet this afternoon in Lawrence, as the eighth-ranked Kansas
Jayhawks host the Colorado Buffaloes in conference action from the Allen
Fieldho
<< High-powered Penguins skate into Phoenix
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins continue their push towards a
possible playoff spot this evening, where the up-and-coming club visits the
Phoenix Coyotes at Jobing.com Arena.
Pittsburgh has won four of its last five ga
<< Scorching Blues hope to end string of misfortune vs. Preds
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The resurgent St. Louis Blues hope to end a long winless
drought against the Nashville Predators when the two Central Division
opponents face off tonight at Scottrade Center.
Nashville boasts 13 consecutive
<< Panthers return from break to host dangerous Devils
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After starting up their current road trip with a victory,
the New Jersey Devils will shoot for a Sunshine State sweep when they head to
the BankAtlantic Center tonight to take on the Florida Panthers.
New Jersey contin
Top-25 battle pits Tar Heels against Wildcats >>
Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rare non-conference treat late in the season
takes place in the desert this afternoon, as the fourth-ranked North
Carolina Tar Heels come calling on the 17th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in
Tucson.
Sooners attempt to continue mastery of Aggies >>
College Station, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sitting in a logjam atop the Big 12
standings, the sixth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies return home to the friendly
confines of Reed Arena, as they play host to the Oklahoma Sooners in
confere
Top-25 Pac-10 tilt features Oregon at Washington State >>
Pullman, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A top-25 battle in the Pac-10 takes place in
the Pacific Northwest this evening, as the seventh-ranked Oregon Ducks
take on the 20th-ranked Washington State Cougars from Friel Court in
Pullman
Trojans attempt to slay Golden Bears in Berkeley >>
Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an attempt to salvage something from
their trip to the Bay Area, the 25th-ranked USC Trojans will take on the
California Golden Bears in Pac-10 play from Haas Pavilion this evening.
The Tro
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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